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Causal Inference
Causal Inference
Methods for Observational Data
- Evaluating whether counterfactual questions (predictions,
what-if questions, and causal effects) can be reasonably
answered from given data, or whether inferences will instead be
highly model-dependent; also, a new decomposition of bias in
causal inference. These articles overlap:
- For complete mathematical proofs, general notation, and
other technical material, see: Gary King and Langche
Zeng. 2006. The Dangers of Extreme
Counterfactuals, Political Analysis,
Vol. 14, No. 2, Pp. 131-159. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- For more intuitive, but less general, notation, but with
additional examples and more pedagogically oriented
material, see: Gary King and Langche Zeng. When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of
Counterfactual Inference, International Studies
Quarterly, 51 (March, 2007):
183--210. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- Matching Methods
- A unified approach to matching methods as a way to reduce
model dependence by preprocessing
data and then using any model you would have without
matching: Daniel Ho,
Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Elizabeth Stuart. Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for
Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal
Inference. Political Analysis, Vol. 15
(2007): Pp. 199-236. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- A simple and powerful method new class of matching estimators:
Stefano M. Iacus, Gary King, and Giuseppe Porro. Matching for Causal Inference Without Balance
Checking. (Paper: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- A method to estimate base probabilities or any quantity of
interest from case-control data, even with no (or partial) auxilliary
information. Discusses problems with odds-ratios. Gary King and
Langche Zeng. Estimating Risk and Rate Levels,
Ratios, and Differences in Case-Control Studies, Statistics
in Medicine, Vol. 21 (2002): Pp. 1409-1427. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- Causal inference in qualitative research (Chapter 4). King,
Gary; Robert O. Keohane; and Sidney Verba. Designing
Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative
Research. Princeton: Princeton University Press,
1994. (Website: Book)
- Gary King. 'Truth' is Stranger than
Prediction, More Questionable Than Causal Inference,
American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4
(November, 1991): Pp. 1047-1053. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
Experimental Design
- Clarifying serious misunderstandings in the advantages and uses
of the most common research designs for making causal inferences.
Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Elizabeth Stuart, Misunderstandings among Experimentalists and
Observationalists about Causal Inference, Journal of
the Royal Statistical Society, Series A Vol. 171, Part 2,
(2008): Pp. 481--502. (Abstract:
HTML | Paper: PDF)
- Gary King, Emmanuela Gakidou, Nirmala Ravishankar, Ryan
T. Moore, Jason Lakin, Manett Vargas, Martha María
Téllez-Rojo, Juan Eugenio Hernández Ávila,
Mauricio Hernández Ávila, and Héctor
Hernández Llamas. A `Politically Robust'
Experimental Design for Public Policy Evaluation, with Application
to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Program,
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 26, Issue 3
(2007): 479--506. (Abstract: HTML | Paper: PDF).
- Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Clayton Nall. The
Essential Role of Pair Matching in Cluster-Randomized Experiments,
with Application to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance
Evaluation (Abstract:
HTML | Paper: PDF)
Software
- MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for
Parametric Causal Inference (Website: MatchIT)
- CEM: Coarsened Exact Matching (Website: CEM)
- WhatIf: Software for Evaluating
Counterfactuals (Website: WhatIf)
- Zelig: Everyone's Statistical Software
(Website: Zelig)
- CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and
Presenting Statistical Results (Website: CLARIFY)
Applications
- Epstein, Lee; Daniel E. Ho; Gary King; and Jeffrey
A. Segal. The Supreme Court During Crisis: How
War Affects only Non-War Cases, New
York University Law Review, Vol. 80, No. 1 (April, 2005):
1-116. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)
- A brief summary of the above article for an undergraduate
audience: Epstein, Lee; Daniel E. Ho; Gary King; and Jeffrey
A. Segal. The Effect of War on the Supreme
Court, in Samuel Kernell and Steven S. Smith, eds.(3rd
ed). Principles and Practice in American Politics: Classic and
Contemporary Readings. Washington, D.C.: Congressional
Quarterly Press, 2006. (Article: PDF | Abstract: HTML)